Gold has fundamentally shifted from a speculative trade to a tier-one monetary asset following the global implementation of Basel III ‘Endgame’ banking rules earlier this year, setting the stage for a long-term move to $10,000 an ounce, according to Edward Dowd.

Dowd, a founding partner of Phinance Technologies and former BlackRock portfolio manager, told Kitco News that the yellow metal is now repricing the end of the “global sovereign debt bubble.”

“Gold became money again recently when the Basel III went through… they made gold tier-one capital again,” Dowd said.

Dowd is referring to the regulatory shift fully implemented on July 1, 2025, which reclassified allocated physical gold as a Tier 1 High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA). This change allows banks to count gold at 100% of its market value for liquidity purposes with a 0% risk weight, effectively placing it on equal footing with cash and sovereign bonds.

“We all know that we’re coming to the end of a grand cycle… There’s gonna be a new monetary system at some point,” Dowd added.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued a warning today noting that gold and equities have entered “explosive territory” simultaneously for the first time in 50 years, with gold surging 20 percent since September. While Dowd sees a “fiat money crisis coming” that necessitates owning gold, he also issued a bold long-term price target based on technical analysis.

“The chart looks like long term it wants to go to $10,000,” Dowd stated.

China’s “Voracious” Bid and The Trade Surplus Shock

Dowd noted that the structural bid for gold is being driven by central banks preparing for a monetary reset, specifically highlighting China’s aggressive accumulation.

Kitco News

After weeks of defined and directional price action, gold prices bounced around in their elevated range as traders looked past much of the data to next week's Fed rate decision.

Gold prices are modestly higher in midday U.S. trading Monday and hit a six-week high. Silver is on a tear and hit another record high. Some safe-haven demand for gold and silver is featured to start the trading week and the new month, amid bond market jitters that have originated from Japan. Chart-based buying is also featured in both metals as their near-term technical postures have become more bullish recently. February gold was last up $14.10 at $4,270.20. March silver prices were up $2.012 at $59.22 and hitting a contract/record high of $59.30 and climbing as of this writing.

Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker near midday but up from session lows. There are some worries about Japan’s bond market that have traders and investors a bit jittery to start the week.

President Trump on Sunday said he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair and expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts. Trump’s chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, is seen as the likely choice to succeed current Fed chief Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. The person Trump picks will require U.S. Senate confirmation as chair and likely to a 14-year Fed governor term that begins in February if the selection is an outsider. Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett as the new Fed chair would be price-friendly for the precious metals.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $59.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.1%.

Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,300.00 and then at $4,350.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,241.10 and then at $4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

March silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $60.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $52.50. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $61.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $56.85 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.5.

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Kitco News

UBS has raised its 2026 mid-year gold target price to $4,500/oz – up from $4,200 previously – on Fed rate cut expectations, persistent geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns and strong demand from central banks and ETF investors.

The gold market is seeing new momentum at the start of the week, with prices pushing above $4,100 an ounce.

The gold market is balancing on a razor's edge around $4,000 an ounce, and one famed British economist sees good arguments for both higher and lower prices.

Sales of gold products reached their highest level in three years in October, while silver sales skyrocketed 83% from September to hit a two-year high, according to the Perth Mint.

Gold’s rally has entered a cooling phase after two consecutive weekly losses, but while near-term momentum has stalled, the fundamental case for holding gold remains intact, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.