Gold has fundamentally shifted from a speculative trade to a tier-one monetary asset following the global implementation of Basel III ‘Endgame’ banking rules earlier this year, setting the stage for a long-term move to $10,000 an ounce, according to Edward Dowd.

Dowd, a founding partner of Phinance Technologies and former BlackRock portfolio manager, told Kitco News that the yellow metal is now repricing the end of the “global sovereign debt bubble.”

“Gold became money again recently when the Basel III went through… they made gold tier-one capital again,” Dowd said.

Dowd is referring to the regulatory shift fully implemented on July 1, 2025, which reclassified allocated physical gold as a Tier 1 High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA). This change allows banks to count gold at 100% of its market value for liquidity purposes with a 0% risk weight, effectively placing it on equal footing with cash and sovereign bonds.

“We all know that we’re coming to the end of a grand cycle… There’s gonna be a new monetary system at some point,” Dowd added.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued a warning today noting that gold and equities have entered “explosive territory” simultaneously for the first time in 50 years, with gold surging 20 percent since September. While Dowd sees a “fiat money crisis coming” that necessitates owning gold, he also issued a bold long-term price target based on technical analysis.

“The chart looks like long term it wants to go to $10,000,” Dowd stated.

China’s “Voracious” Bid and The Trade Surplus Shock

Dowd noted that the structural bid for gold is being driven by central banks preparing for a monetary reset, specifically highlighting China’s aggressive accumulation.

Kitco News